:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 549 km/s at 14/0045Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1581 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Jun, 17
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 128
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 120/118/118
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  009/008-010/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/15
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/25