:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Jun) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 509 km/s at 17/1452Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
17/0535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0803Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1012 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 111
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 112/114/118
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  008/010-015/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/40