:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 473 km/s at 17/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
18/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1959Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1919 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 111
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 112/118/118
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  015/015-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25