:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 02/1157Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
02/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
02/1518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (03 Jul, 04
Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03
Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 203
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 200/200/190
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  027/040-023/030-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    60/15/50