:Product: 0703RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Jul 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/2100Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 03/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 15 nT at 03/2037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Jul). III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul Class M 70/70/55 Class X 20/20/10 Proton 20/20/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jul 187 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 130 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 023/030-012/018-014/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor Storm 35/25/10 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 15/60/35