:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Jul) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (07
Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on
day three (08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 05/0331Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 05/1753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
5 nT at o5/0820Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 443 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Jul) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    75/60/15
Class X    20/10/01
Proton     20/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 139
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 130/120/125
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  040/075
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  012/014-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/10/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/05