:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (07 Jul) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two
and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 06/1800 UTC. Total IMF reached
08 nT at 06/1908 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -04
nT at 06/1708 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1935 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    55/20/20
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 125
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  019/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-006/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/20