:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 08/0209 UTC. Total IMF reached
10 nT at 08/1537 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached NA
nT at -08 nT at 08/1624 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3215 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Jul, 11 Jul)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 116
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  011/012-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20