:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 09/2047 UTC. Total IMF reached
12 nT at 09/1516 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10
nT at 09/1027 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 766 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 110
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  012/015-010/012-007/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05