:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 11/1806 UTC. Total IMF reached
8 nT at 11/1742 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT
at 11/1857 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4619 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (13 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (14
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 112
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 105/105/115
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  016/024-010/010-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    35/10/10