:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (13 Jul) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 12/0316Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 12/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 12/1028Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3729 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 107
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  014/015-015/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/30/15