:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s, and the total IMF reached 5 nT. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1988 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 105
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 110/115/120
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul   NA/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  007/007-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10