:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul,
23 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 286 km/s 20/0609Z. Total IMF reached 5.8 nT at 2044Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4.3 nT at 1902. 
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1303 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (23 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 137
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 140/142/145
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  007/008-020/030-013/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           10/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    40/70/50