:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 21/1944Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 21/1018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
21/1321Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 869 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 149
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 150/148/145
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  016/026-014/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/45