:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul,
27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 713 km/s at 24/0036Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1072 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jul, 26 Jul) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 150
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  006/005-006/005-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/40