:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 548 km/s at 26/1241Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0420Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 148
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  015/018-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/25