:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug,
04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 335 km/s at 31/2126Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
31/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/1304Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8 pfu at 01/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (04
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 140
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  026/034-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/20