:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 02/1717Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 1500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 02/1502Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 816 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 127
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  016/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  017/022-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/25/20