:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 05/0025Z. Total IMF reached 4.1 nT at
05/0255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2.9 nT at
05/0446Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 108
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 110/107/105
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  004/004-010/012-008/009

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/15
Minor Storm           01/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/50/20