:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 284 km/s at 06/2148Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/1119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1120Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 651 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 097
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  008/008-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20