:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 11/2036Z. Total IMF reached
10.2 nT at 11/1041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.4
nT at 11/1358Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 733 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 096
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 098/098/100
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  007/009-007/006-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/40