:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Aug,
15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 13/0153 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
13/2059 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1931 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 397 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (14 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (15 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 108
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 110/105/100
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  015/018-012/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    45/40/25