:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s. Total IMF reached 8 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT.  Electrons greater than
2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 114
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  012/015-008/010-007/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/20