:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug,
22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at. Total IMF reached 9. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21
Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 126
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  014/015-011/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/35