:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 22/0125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
22/1724Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 22/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug  124
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  120/115/110
90 Day Mean        22 Aug  NA

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  008/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15