:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -2 nT.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 23/0700Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1856 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 128
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20