:Product: 0825RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Aug 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 24/2200z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/2200z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 25/1451z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 25/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1607 pfu at 25/1705z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (27 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug). III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Aug 132 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 135/133/130 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 131 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 006/005-017/022-024/034 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/40/30 Minor Storm 05/25/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 20/50/60