:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 26/0040Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at
26/0040z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
26/1228z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1654 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Aug) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 131
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 131/130/130
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  017/023-024/034-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    01/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/75/30