:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug,
31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 28/1933Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 28/1930Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 13 nT at
28/2014Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1307 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (31
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 116
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 116/112/110
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  024/ NA-010/ NA-006/ NA

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/10
Minor Storm           40/20/01
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/50/10