:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 29/1439Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 29/0039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 11 nT at
29/0518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    25/25/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 111
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 108/103/110
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/012-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           20/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/10/10