:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 31/1414 UTC. Total IMF reached
5 nT at 31/1642 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT
at 31/0020 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2007 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 107
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 108/106/104
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/15