:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 01/1235 UTC . Total IMF reached
6 nT at 01/1240 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT
at 01/1017 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2315 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 101
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 100/098/096
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  005/005-004/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15