:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 04 0255 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 03/1553 UTC. Total IMF reached a peak of 8
nT at 03/0656 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT
at 03/2042 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2703 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 108
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  005/005-006/005-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/15