:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Sep,
16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 13/2223 UTC. Total IMF reached
11 nT at 14/1124 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -07
nT at 14/1014 UTC.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 14/1520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4652 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Sep,
16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 104
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 105/100/095
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/020-017/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15