:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 19/1005Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0331Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 984 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 097
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 098/098/098
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15