:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep,
25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 317 km/s at 23/2041 UTC. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
23/2043 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2028 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 121
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 120/120/118
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  017/024-013/016-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15