:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s. Total IMF reached 10 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 404 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 105
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  010/012-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10