:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 25/2333Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/1235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 5 nT at
26/0419Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1259 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 101
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  013/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  010/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/15