:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 339 km/s at 28/2251Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at
29/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
29/1012Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5621 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Sep, 01 Oct) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 092
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  006/005-006/005-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/40