:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 04/1807Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 04/0648Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 04/0611Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 092
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 092/090/090
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  015/018-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/20