:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Oct,
07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 04/2201 UTC. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 04/2226 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -9 nT at 2302 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2357 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 100
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 098/098/098
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  021/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  019/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  012/014-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15