:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 08/0120Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
08/1307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1214Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11335 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (10 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 119
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  023/035-013/015-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/40
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/40