:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 904 km/s at 10/1753Z. Total IMF
reached 46 nT at 10/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-29 nT at 10/1624Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (11 Oct) and unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    65/65/55
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       N/A

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 126
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  025/053
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  021/032-018/022-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/25/30
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/30