:Product: 1011RSGA.txt :Issued: 2026 Oct 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (14 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 10/2120Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 11/0310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 10/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 382 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Oct, 14 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Oct). III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct Class M 65/55/45 Class X 15/10/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF n/a IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Oct 122 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 115 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 027/046 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 012/016-020/028-010/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/20 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/35/20