:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 13/2049Z. Total IMF reached
16.3 nT at 13/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.7 
nT at 13/1550Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 136
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 120/115/105
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  014/018-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15