:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 14 2315 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 651 km/s at 14/0139Z. Total IMF reached
7.3 nT at 14/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.0 
nT at 14/2013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 375 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled on day one (15 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 123
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/013-008/009-006/004

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/15