:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 16/0133Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1466 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 131
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    30/15/15