:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct,
22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 18/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/1003Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 520 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 121
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  017/022-013/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/20