:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 20/2048Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 20/1438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/1438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 643 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 121
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 120/118/115
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  018/021-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10