:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 21/2200Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 21/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 22/0815Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1022 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 106
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 102/102/100
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  008/010-007/007-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/35